Post Covid-19 Economic Status

 The Impact 

After the dramatic pause due to the impact of the coronavirus, economists have begun to wonder what shape would the recovery take place after the pandemic is over. And when would the rise if any stabilize or be at par with the pre-covid-19 level.  In spite of enthusiasm expressed by some planners, a V-shaped trajectory is nigh impossible taking into account the disruptive nature of the pandemic. 

The state of financial well-being and business stability is always expressed in figures and percentages in graphs and info graphs online. The methodology adopted in order to compute the economic status at any given time is standardized. But there are many if and buts that regulate the outcome.  At the present juncture, all cogs in the wheel have been badly disrupted. There seems to be no recourse to a stable environment that will fetch prosperity back to the people with states being shrouded by the dark clouds of death and destruction.     

The lowest figures stated by the World Bank and rating agencies are suggestive of a deep plunge due to the impact on the growth which was witnessing a downslide for the first time since liberalization in 1990. Growth figures projected for the fiscal year 2021 have come spiraling down indicating a deep recession. The negative growth rate is attributed to the pandemic and not surprisingly calls for economy booster packages.      

After a deep plunge downwards due to intense lockdown globally, there was a brief upward trajectory whence the first wave ended, and it seemed that this was the end of the travails. But this was not to be, for the second wave after a brief lull shook the Nation with complete surprise.  

The contraction of GDP in the year 2021 is as much as 40% which is not at all encouraging. This is a testing time for planners and the dispensation as to how it extracts the country out of the quagmire.  

The coronavirus is attacking humanity in waves, each being as uncertain as the first one. The second wave has struck with complete surprise causing an unimaginable loss in terms of humanity, as well as the economy. Though the period has been relatively short, the economic impact has not been as devastating as the death toll. But the scars are going to take a long to erase, and the uncertainty that prevails will definitely affect the economic recovery if we add the impact of the first wave now already exhausted. 

In order to comprehend the post-pandemic state we will have to consider many factors that currently govern our economy.  

India remains a third World mixed economy, even if we take into consideration a few strides of success we have made here and there. We are certainly yet to reach the top in order to be seen as a developed Nation.  

The first aspect that we are concerned about is the pandemic itself and how it will unfold further. Will it die down after the apocryphal third wave in a short time or will it be a prolonged tragedy pulling the country deeper into to chaos and economic downslide? No wonder the pandemic has been the worst disaster of the century.  

The impact has been cataclysmic, and we are still reeling under the human tragedy that has unfolded. The destruction has not been in material terms like in the World wars. But the deaths have certainly been more than them. Equally, the next worst impact heaped upon us has been the economic downturn which has affected all strata of society, all over the globe. Hardly few sectors have been left unscathed, but they too have suffered indirectly from the abrupt cessation of industrial activities all around. Both the manufacturing and the service sector have been performing badly. The reduction in employment and the salary cuts including that of the daily wage group and the informal sector have directly impacted the spending power of Indians which has reflected upon the manufacturing as well as the service sector.  Knee-jerk solutions have provided no succor in the current state. They have not made any positive impact on the situation albeit substantial relief has been provided to those below the poverty level as far as sustenance is concerned.  

More than forty percent of Indian households have reported an income drop during the ongoing lockdowns. More than fifty percent of businesses have reported a total closure or significant slow down this has impacted the country's 2.8 trillion economies such that only a quarter of it is functional. The supply chains have been put under severe stress with the agriculture sector being the worst sufferer during the lockdown.  

The business resumption index stands at the dismal figure of 44 much less than 89 which was the pre-pandemic figure. There is a lot of hesitancy as regards stability in this period and business operations have been significantly affected by the absence of contingency management within and at the National level since even when the virus struck in Wuhan none assumed that the emerging epidemic would turn into a pandemic. The spread has been universal and the significant slowdown due to frequent lockdowns has increased the suffrage of the people exaggerated by sickness, deaths, and unemployment as a result.   

There would be a significant improvement in the situation if the vaccination is successful or if the pandemic subsides completely on its own. India has the resilience and the necessary wherewithal to bounce back as a Nation and this applies to the economy as well. Will we see the daylight in the year 2022 or 2023 is a matter of conjecture?

Inkjet Cartridge Economy

A vital component of inkjet printers the demand for this accessory has gone along with it. The cartridge contains ink in the inbuilt reservoirs which are deposited during the printing process. Colored inkjets have many variants and hence the cartridges have been well-modified as per the models. 

The refills are priced highly but nonbrand vendors sell the cartridges at a lesser price.  The undergoing trend is to bring the price down. Besides using non-branded cartridges another way is to involve continuous ink systems using an external tank. In some models continuous ink systems are inbuilt. Also known as CISS the system uses an external reservoir or bottles filled with colored ink. These systems are mass-produced in China with auto-reset chips and are economically priced.

Some manufacturers create interlock systems that prevent optimum use of the ink in the cartridges overcoming these enables better use bringing down the cost. 

The cheaper third-party options are most popular all over the globe. Since the original cartridges are expensive it is possible to refill ink using a kit or some manufacturers and re-fillers facilitate the consumers.  Nevertheless, this is not a plausible solution whence there is a color leakage, streaking, or curling hence the failure rate has to be taken into consideration. 

Another option is to go for a bulk purchase from the manufacturers directly as a discount or offer is usually associated. Even containers containing large volumes of ink can be bought and then refilled by the consumers themselves.  Easily refillable cartridges are also available some of which are environmentally friendly. Each year about three million cartridges are thrown into landfills creating an environmental problem.  This number is on the increase which is a red signal considering that each one takes hundreds of years to decompose completely.     

Re-manufactured cartridges are also available. They use available ink cartridges manufactured by major companies. These have been used at least once.   

Moving Industry Outlook USA

The moving or translocation industry is dynamic as a large number of residents, workers, soldiers, and businesses move from one State to another or locally.   

Like all industries the moving industry experience change. It is highly dependent on the state of the economy, industrial outlook, trends, and paradigm shifts that govern life in the US. These are not the only factors that make people relocate locally or to other states of the country. 

Some other factors that make people shift from one place to another or from one destination to another are: 

• Seeking cheaper accommodation
• 
  
• Move into own Household
• Job transfers
• Marital status change
• Leaving education institutions
• Retirement
• Health reasons
• Natural upheavals 
• Social Insecurity
• Discrimination
• Rentals
• Proximity to workplace
• Proximity to school/college or university
• Expanding accommodations

According to trends, more than eighty percent move within the state. About twelve percent move outside the state while the rest migrate to another country. In US annual translocation is approximately forty-three million people. This constitutes seventeen percent of the population of the USA. Hence the number of people on the move every year is on the rise due to the factors stated above,.     

As per the American Moving and Storage Association, the movement in various sectors took place as follows: 

24% Military
Corporate 39 %
Individual or Residents 35 % |
Leaving the rest to Federal Government employees.    

The constant demand in the industry has seen the establishment of new moving companies big or small. With the rise in relocation the logistic, storage, and transportation companies have also experienced growth.
 

 

   

Empowering Economy : Green Renewable Energy

Energy has played tremendous role in shaping economies the World over. No wonder so much depends upon the price of crude and extraction of coal. Both are fossil fuels that generate warming with the emission of carbon dioxide.    

To make matters worse elements that control global warming are being decimated massively. All over the World especially in South Americas and some Asian countries the denudation is at its worst. The countries desperate for revenue generation seek short term benefits from fossil fuels, and activities that permanently destroy the best ecosystems in the World.     

The answer lies in harnessing renewable energy that is emission friendly and does not deplete our resources. All said and done many countries across the globe are actively perusing their agenda to win this battle. So far in spite of positive results they are not tangible.  Alternative energy means like the wind mills, solar panels and bio gas have not been implemented on a large scale to counter the usage of fossil fuels. The problem lies in the cost of the infrastructure which is still high in spite of strides made into the technology.    

All three are future energy sources though substantial generation is taking place.  In case of bio gas generation South Korea leads by example. The waste recycling plants using animal excreta has been set up at places using advance technology. India should emulate such positive development taking into consideration the colossal amount bio waste generated from large live stock population all across the country.      

Though economies have benefited by drastic reduction of price or crude the green answer remains elusive. Sound industrial development, construction and daily usage means using energy that is green or recyclable.   

There is no limit to sources that yield  alternative or renewable energy some of other means are ocean energy, hot rock geothermal power, hydroelectricity, solar heating and of course the much maligned nuclear energy. The latter poses safeguard threats and yes as lately mention the fear of theft of fissile material by terrorists.  .  

Out of the Brink - Construction Industry

The decade was abuzz with the slow down in major economies of  Europe and America the leading power house of modern civilizations. From the world of monopoly and dominant economic centers the World has become multi-polar with many centers of economy.     

The paradigm shift has affected many traditional industries especially augured by a devastating slow down. The recent down slide in oil prices has added to the woes. 

The rapidly emerging economies in Asia, East Europe, Middle East and Latin America offers hope to many in the construction industry with constant needs of urbanization.  In USA salvage packages diversified funding and new opportunities spur growth to new heights changing the dismal picture few years ago. However companies better able to adapt to the changing landscape globally will reap major benefits.     

Though work force concerns will remain new technology trends and increase in spending will fuel growth in 2016. Most of the work force that had migrated back to their countries have not returned. Further tech savvy younger generation neglected during the slowdown so no inclination towards joining the sector.  This continuing trend has resulted in curtailing the project handling capacities of many builders in US. .        

Prefab or modular construction has proven to be more cost effective, green with less time consumption. This is attracting companies to move towards this emerging technology.  

But as per prediction single family housing construction will pick up this year to the tune of twenty five percent.But the multifamily sector will remain as the stabilizing factor.   

Construction activities include commercial construction, engineering projects and urban developments. But the housing sector takes the cake hence the focus of this article.  

Another sphere of activity is the house remodeling sector which is an indicator of increase in spending ability. This is often compounded with repair and renovation work which is so much a part of industry. Thus the professional contractors have added work requirements whence spending is good.   

Oil Prices & Global Impact

For some countries the drastic reduction in crude price has a devastating effect. Most of these countries are into production and refining. The reduction in prices has been due to over production and low demand. This status is going to be further fueled by lifting embargo on Iran and its entry into the oil market.        

In spite of global reduction in the prices the cat and mouse game goes on with the recent upsurge.  In US the swing has been highly volatile with as much as eleven percent rise. Will the price stabilize is at best a conjecture albeit production cut is being talked about among the OPEC and other producers.  The recent slump has been the cause of loss for many oil majors like Shell and BP. 

For UK the slump has been good for the economy resulting rise of wages. According to BBC the heaviest losers are:

Russia with over seventy percent of export income arising from energy.
Venezuela is one of the largest exporter of crude and hence has been hot hard by the slump.

Saudi Arabia can bear the slump for a longer time thanks to its fund reserves.       

For more information read: Impact of falling crude

Global Economic Scenario - Banks

US economy leaping far ahead of the World crumbles and many banking institutions pack up overnight. The economists are stunned no one could peep through the curtains of corporate offices. What happened?

Bolstered by a strong economy and upward trends, the banking institutions fed the public on easily available loans under presumption that return is no big issue. It was! The country had begun facing the heat with most of the manufacturing moving to Asia, competition in service sector and competition from rising economy like India and China.   

These factors have severely affected the developed World especially Europe. For the banking sector a new paradigm has to emerge in order to manage cash adequacy and mitigate risk factors. This means more regulatory norms and stringent compliance.

Capital Flow inwards is crucial for smaller banks to retain fund adequacy. Sound financial strategies are the order of the day.  For small sized large amount of capital input is a necessity if they have to grow bigger.

Economic revival of India

India has gone a long way since independence in economy and business. Not only this the country has advanced on all spheres. It is today assumed to be an economic giant a future leader perhaps. 

Just after the independence the country followed socialist, protectionist policies that encouraged public sector but not the private sector. Heavy taxation was a bane of all progress and it encouraged tax evasion hence black money. 

In recent time there has been as lot of reforms which has brought about a dynamic U turn in the economy. With corrective policies and reforms the industrial sector achieved phenomenal growth. Subsequently exports gained a big boost. The low cost manufacturing and affordable service sector made the country attractive for foreign direct investors. The manufacturing sector has gained a lot and is in position to challenge China.   

The country has vast man power which id skilled and semi skilled and understands or speak English. The resultant benefits are obvious and the Nation is engaged in enhancing this factor. Education in India is a priority and will change the country's profile and image abroad. The Indian management cadre, white and blue collar workers and cheap labor contribute to the economy most prolifically. 

The burgeoning technological, research and management institutes are the country's futuristic strength. Indian professional will pay an active role in global economy in time to come.     

Indian Business

Like never before Indian business and industries are booming. From a humble beginning post independence the countries progress scale has showed a steep upward movement in recent times. The biggest growth factor is the manufacturing sector small and big. 

With recession in the developed countries greater impetus is placed upon cutting costs. Countries like India and China offer cheaper production using latest technology. Hence the cost cutting exercise has become a strategic move and must. The resistance towards outsourcing to India is irrational since ultimate beneficiaries are the parent companies situated in the Western World.      

India is destined to be an economic power horse as analyst say. The boost in growth has also arisen from the It sector and overseas job scenario since NRI contribution to the economy is substantial. Tourism is on the move but comparably the country stands nowhere in spite of having the wonders to offer. The reason is lack of infrastructure and services that cater to super luxurious tourists preferences.  

Other factors that contribute are medical tourism, performing arts, music and education....so many others. The country in spite of problems that scale to a high magnitude is nevertheless advancing in all sectors. This augurs a bright future in time to come.